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Job losses
But what about the impact of tariffs on job creation? Surprisingly, an increase in import taxes has been found to result in slightly more unemployment across countries.
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An example provided by Irwin at Dartmouth College points to one plausible explanation — and it has to do with the steeper cost of imported goods.

“A number of studies have shown, on net, we lost jobs from the (2018) steel tariffs rather than gained jobs because there are more people employed in the downstream user industries than in the steel industry itself,” he said.
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A study by the Federal Reserve Board found that a rise in input costs resulting from US tariff hikes in 2018-19 led to job losses in American manufacturing. The damage from those higher expenses was compounded by retaliatory taxes on US exports, more than offsetting a small boost to manufacturing employment from US tariffs — at least so far, the 2024 paper said.

Retaliation by other countries is indeed another danger of pulling the tariff lever. Higher tariffs on American exports would typically raise their prices for foreign consumers, hitting demand for the goods in many cases.

When Trump announced new tariffs this year, America’s major trading partners were quick to strike back with their own levies, although the US then agreed a temporary truce with China and the European Union.

Costs of free trade
While economists generally agree that free trade has benefited the global economy in recent decades, they acknowledge that it comes with certain costs.

One is the loss of jobs in communities that are particularly exposed to new competition from foreign manufacturers.

That is similar to the impact of technological progress on workers. “Manufacturing jobs as a share of the labor force have come down everywhere. It isn’t a US-specific story,” said Gimber at JPMorgan Asset Management, pointing to automation.

He drew a parallel between helping workers affected by higher imports and what is known as a just transition — the idea that the drastic changes needed to move toward a greener economy should be fair to everyone and minimize harm to workers and communities.

In both cases, providing workers in impacted industries with new skills or retraining them could be key, Gimber said.

Another potential cost of free trade is dependency on far-flung manufacturers. That took on new relevance during the pandemic, which snarled global supply chains, contributing to shortages of products such as face masks and respirators in the US and elsewhere.

However, economists do not typically see tariffs as a good way to build up domestic manufacturing, Fatas at INSEAD said, noting that subsidies for specific industries are viewed as a better tool “because they work more directly.”

But perhaps the strongest argument in favor of free trade is its importance to maintaining peace between nations.

As Gimber’s colleague David Kelly noted in March, closer trade relations give countries more to lose in any conflict.

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Solar and batteries could help Egypt beat its blackouts
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Egypt’s first large-scale hybrid solar and battery plant has begun construction as the country looks to its abundant sunshine to help fix its energy crisis.

Obelisk, located in Nagaa Hammadi, will combine 1.1 gigawatts of solar production with 200 megawatt hours of battery storage. The $590 million project is being built by Scatec, a Norwegian renewable energy company mostly working in emerging markets.

Scatec already has four other renewable projects in Egypt, and the north African country is aiming to increase its share of renewable production from 13% in 2023, to 42% by 2030.
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Around three quarters of Egypt’s electricity comes from gas. But in recent years, as its domestic gas production fell, it became reliant on imports and rising gas prices plunged Egypt into a series of blackouts.

Renewable projects are becoming increasingly attractive to emerging economies, which tend to be hit the hardest by rising fuel prices, Terje Pilskog, CEO of Scatec told CNN. “With renewables, you are not dependent on importing fuels,” he said. “It is also about predictability.”

Sixty percent of the world’s best land for solar development is in Africa, according to the industry body Global Solar Council, but in 2023, only 3% of the continent’s energy came from solar. In 2024, 75% of all new solar projects were built in South Africa or Egypt, however 18 countries across Africa have the potential to install more than 100 MW solar projects in 2025, compared to two in 2024. The continent is aiming to reach 300 GW of solar capacity by 2030, which is more than the current capacity of the US.

Although Egypt is looking for new domestic gas resources, it has set ambitious renewable energy targets, and hosted the COP27 climate conference in 2022. But the driving force behind these new renewable projects is economic, not environmental, said Karim Elgendy, executive director of Carboun Institute, an energy and climate think tank for the Middle East and North Africa.

With an overreliance on gas, and with declining production from its flagship Zohr gas field, Egypt is struggling to keep the lights on.

Egypt issued a tender to import nearly two million tons of fuel oil in May and June to meet its electricity needs as gas imports became too expensive. The summer brings high demand, as air conditioning units are turned on to combat the intense heat – average highs can reach 42 Celsius (108 Fahrenheit) in the south. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly recently urged people to curb their energy usage to avoid blackouts.

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